Hey dudes, I just added an RSS feed from 24/7 wall st. I HIGHLY recommend reading this site daily and checking the feed to the right for interesting articles. The two sites that I try to read daily are 24/7WallSt. and BloggingStocks. Though, in all honesty there are way too many articles to sort through when you have a day job as well. Anyhow, I also added a newsreel at the top that will flash articles related to stocks we are covering. This site just got started a couple weeks ago so expect major overhauls. Especially in the banner. Good day!
Read / Discuss >>quarters are lame
1/4% rate cute on the funds and discount rate. So it turned out to be a pretty non-eventful day. But I guess we should be thankful they actually cut rates. Otherwise, we'd be eating our feces right now. The fed did do something interesting however. They cautioned that from now on the effects of economic growth are going to balance out with inflation. At first I thought, this is not too good... because now there won't be anyone to save our economy. But then, I realized when Ben did the first cut he surprised EVERYONE. He was so proactive that people simply assumed he was "easy" like Greenspan (whores!) . That's why this cut didn't really have an effect on the market. I feel like the next time they meet the market won't price in an assumed .25% cut. Then, if the rate does get cut it can serve as another stimulus for the market. There's no point in cutting rates if it doesn't stimulate the economy am I right? Big Ben is smarter than we thought! I'm not saying this is the real reason he made such comments. However, one can dream no?
Read / Discuss >>
too bad, so sad
MA earnings were through the roof.... and it looks like PTR is ready to take off... and I would be rich if I were not fully invested in 3 lame companies. It's all good thought, I hope you guys took advantage of the speculative plays. Soon, I'll have enough capital to spread things around a bit.
NEWS!
Man, sorry guys.. Yesterday night I was reading Barron's and found out about how they expect the Google phone to come out in the next couple weeks. I'm going to make a habit of posting big news events like that, that are sure to be catalysts. A quick option buy at the beginning of the day would have made 100% or more!
Well to make it up to you I found out when PTR is going to start trading on Shanghai. Nov 5! Thats pretty soon. And right now the stock is trading sideways. If I had free cash I would definitely buy some dec calls (to be safe, nov if you feel a little risky) . I read a statistic somewhere saying that in the first day of trading Chinese companies EXPECT to double the share prices. Now i KNOW that won't happen here because its not a true IPO. However, there has got to be some upside. Plus the sideways trading reduces volatility somewhat so you'll gain value just going into the date! (I hope)
Also! Remember that tomorrow is the FOMC meeting. The street is expecting a .25% cut and hoping for more. So if it's less than that watch out... =T
epiphany
I came to an epiphany earlier today so I thought I'd share it with you guys. Since we do short term swing trades we have to think about short term investor sentiment. So we are gonna assume we enter these swing trades at positions of relative support. Three weeks ago or so I sold some EMC options that were very profitable. However! I sold them at at 21.67 and two days later EMC was at 23.50! Back then the market was running like a bull was up its butthole and volatility was relatively low. When volatility is low let your winners run.
And as you guys know, recently I've had NVDA CSCO and RIMM. NVDA was up 10% since I bought in, and my options were up more than 100%! But, I tried to let it run a bit more because this happened maybe 2 days after I bought it. Well! I was an idiot and I didn't think about the state of the market. Its ridiculously volatile! I feel like its August all over again.. In volatile markets when you have good gains lock them in! And wait for another pullback, because they will come!
Three pillars of awesomeness:
1) It might seem counterintuitive but In volatile markets you need to get STINGY AND GREEDY. Don't let the market have your money back!
2) In steady markets you just need to be greedy.
3) In overly extended markets you need to be greedy and a little pansy (because you better be scared ball-less). Balls are useless in over-extended markets, so LOSE them. destroy them.
Speculative Plays
If you guys want a speculative play that is really tempting me get into PTR around now. It's been going sideways for 3days? now which must be some sort of record because it seems like this stock doesnt stop.. at all! The reason I would tell you to risk prcious money in here is because they are about to be added to the shanghai stock exchange and prices in shanghai are ridiculous. But what is an american investor to do? sell it at 15$ cheaper in America just because we think that's the real price?!? HELL NO!! If it goes up in China it goes up around the world. That it will definitely do, do do dooo.
Another speculative play which I refuse to do because this season I am not playing "The Earnings Game" isss Mastercard! I'm not sure how successful this will be. I'm pretty certain that they will post a strong quarter due to global growth and the fact that Mastercard doesn't assume any debt themselves. They simply earn a fee everytime someone swipes. Whether it be for 50cent gum or a 500 dollar TV. However usually stocks get hit according to the guidance. Management might want to be a little conservative because they don't know how the whole credit crunch will end up affecting them. If that's the case then earnings player= earnings loser. Still it's some food for thought!
If you guys have any questions about anything please ask! (in the comments) I'm very happy to explain. Personally whenever I read blogs, the "journal", or anything at all if someone makes a claim I want to know the reasoning behind it. Because only then can I deide whether I want to agree with them. That's the lesson for today! Never believe anyone! Only understand their reasoning and come to the same conclusion afterwards. Yea!! Reason rocksss ma stocksss!
HelicopterBEN!! He's our hero!
SO! It's Thursday night again.. I seem to have the most time on Thursday nights And I desperately need to update this.
OCT 31! Save the date!
Hopefully HelicopterBen sees the signs of a slowing economy... because I'm sure scared.. Although the market is doing relatively well and the stock market is a "forward looking" indicator of our economy... something bad is gonna happen.. I mean how can it not? There are millions of people with newly adjusted ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) without the equity of increasing home value to help pay them off. And if they can't pay off their loans then they're bankrupt and the lenders lose money. It's lose-lose and money just vanishes from our economy. But even though i feel like theres going to be a hit on the economy I don't know if the stock market will follow suit. There's a lot of commotion over how even though the nasdaq is up big this year, its primarily due to a very select few stocks that have gone crazy. Which leads many to think are investors just stuffing up the few companies that are doing well. As long as there is strong investor enthusiasm their money will end up somewhere. And if it all ends up in Apple or RIMM of GOOG then the market will still head higher. But then valuations get a little wild and then all the bubble talk reemerges. But we'll never know if we're in a bubble till it pops =T. So ride the wave and be cautious!
Bear Raid
Anyhow.. I've had personal positions in NVDA, CSCO and RIMM all bought on dips in the stocks. I was doing pretty well with NVDA after Intel earnings came out with the stock reaching 39's but this morning a notoriously bearish analyst reduced his rating from neutral to sell. And in my opinion it was just a bad time to do such a call. I mean I nderstand there are fears of future competition and such but the last quarter will be spectacular because of nvidia's dominance in laptops and ATI's failed attempt at capturing more of the niche market. And the next quarter can only have positive guidance as a new high end graphics card is about to be released. And that's THAT! Sad to say but a stock price is usually determined by the previous quarter's results, the current quarter's expected results and the guidance expected for the next quarter. Its a quarter sandwich! Lame. Whatever. But investors are generally short sighted. This fact was especially obvious today as the downgrade sent NVDA down 9%. That's a huge drop.. that's more than Google jumped off a stellar earnings report.. Personally I think it was more profit taking than anything else because the stock has gone up up up this year.
RIMM jumped up this week when they announced that deals with China have begun. Two analysts raised their price targets and it looks like this one just needs a little bump (HELICOPTERben!) to start moving.
CSCO has also tapered off its recent 33ish high to 31.18. Why? Honestly I'm not so sure. At first I thought it may have been due to the Brazil scandal. But right now Brazil represents such a small part of the companies revenues. I think it just got hit with the rest of the market in the recent bear raid. On another blog someone mentioned how it seems like we were at ll time highs and the market realized that if we didnt pull back then helicopter ben wouldn't come in and save us. Clever aren't we!!
Overall I think my three techies will benefit from MSFT's blowout quarter. I came into this earnings season fearful of "playing" the earnings game. But boy I wish I hadn't been so cautious. It was widely known that MSFT had a BLOCKBUSTER with HALO. And vista is slowly being integrated into computer systems.. but oh wells..
sorry
sorry all.. this has got to be the lamest blog ever because i post once every two weeks... good thing i don't have any readers yet!! but anyhow I had a post written up last week but something happened and I forgot to finish so its saved as a draft right now.. I guess I'll post it sooner or later for my own record keeping purposes..
This was an interesting article I came across today about a mutual fund. http://www.thestreet.com/_mktwrm/s/how-a-mutual-fund-turned-losses-into-gains/funds/mutualfundmonday/10385562_3.html
Apple reported crazy numbers after the close today.. mac sales were HUGE.. which seems to be a trend now. But I'm not so pleased with the iphone numbers. I mean its a very successful device by ALL accounts, however I just don't feel like the magnitude of the sales represent the magnitude of the device ( which I believe is revolutionary) And if you think about the price now.. at $399 its only a hundred dollars more than a razr2 or a t-mobile wing with a LOT more capability than either (well the wing is tied until developers actually release 3rd party programs for the iphone). Anyhow the only blemish I can see in the product right now is AT&T. Service contracts are shall we say a mother's uncle's father's mother's again, cousin's, mother sucker!!. I'm sick of 2-year contracts! Luckily for me I've never had to get one! Insert Google to rework the wireless industry, thank you! Wireless carriers better start rethinking their business models because suddenly they've become MA bell and will get owned by wrinkles and creaky bones and bad hips and all other things that affect ancient creatures.
-BTW theres a deal for a t-mobile wing with one year contract for only $50 from t-mobile direct. just go to www.slickdeals.net and search t-mobile wing in the forums section
IT's late!!
I'm lame
I started this blog so that I would force myself to keep up with the market daily but haven't posted since thursday. Therefore, I am LAME. Anyhow, update on my positionss... on friday I bought a couple november NVDA and CSCO calls. NVDA has been working out for me, CSCO not so much... NVDA seems to be forming a bullish flag/wedge/ whatever you want to call it. Point is, it's about to breakout either up or down.. I'm thinking up because only good things have been coming out of NVDA camp and I'm hoping Tuesday's tech triumph in earnings (YHOO????????) spreads to the rest of the sector.
CSCO is also being lame having dropped under its trendline support and back to its 50day. I guess I'm concerned over the lawsuit in Brazil, but I'm not that worried. It tried to test its 50day today and shot right back up with decent volume.
Last post I said I liked AMZN and ISRG and since then AMZN went up and back down to 89. Historically AMZN shares seem to taper off before an earnings announcement which I have finally found the date to oct. 23! And ISRG had a drop off today due to a valuation concern. The stock has run up considerably since last quarter's results and if it doesn't blow away analyst expectations then watch out. But then again.. why shouldn't it blow away expectations?
GOOG reports earnings on Thursday. AAPL on the 22. Straddles? anyone? I would highly recommend them. If you are unfamiliar straddles involve buying put and call options and the same strike price, generally at the price the stock is selling for. You make money if the stock moves a lot. And you lose money if the stock moves very little. I suggest buying the straddle a little before earnings so implied volatility isnt so frackin high. Its a litle late for google, but there may still be time for appl. This way, whether they disappoint or rock their earnings you make money either way! And investors are so so very emotional with appl and google that even if the price ultimately ends up not moving much I'm sure there will be some sort of initial price hike up or down.
I also entered some RIMM november calls on monday. It's pulling back a little too much, especially after such an awesome quarter. If I held the stock I would already be up on this trade... but I forgot about the volatility... So on Monday when the stock just dropped the volatility was high and now even though the stock is higher than when i purchased my calls, my calls are worth less because the volatility is down... Learn from my mistakes people!!!
I still very much like ARNA. But then again biotech stocks are all about clinical trials. So if they do well, this stock goes to 14 (from 10.60) in a day. And then higher. The next results are for Lorcaserin. It also had one of those reversal days where it dropepd to 10.30's and came back strong during the day. So
First Post
Alright first time posting. Its pretty darn late but I wanted to get some thoughts up because I've been lagging in creating this. So frankly Im gonna get right to it. Right now I;m watching a pretty big list of stocks (for me anyways) for some entry points heres the listt:
AAPL: its really highly traded stock. It has a lot of momentum recently with all the other big tech names. But like all the other big tech names it got hammered today back to friday levels. I was waiting for this pullback for a while. I'm thinking of waiting until monday or watching the market friday to see if theres a sell off into a big buyback? (i can't think of the term right now). But anyways I'd be too scared to enter near the open tomorrow, because all the tech stocks seem overextended.
AMZN: amazon is part of the big tech boom too even though its a retailer. E-tailers are doing well. Cramer is super bullish on this stock and it just dropped back to september 18 levels. That means pre fed rate cut folks. Man i totally wouldnt have known that unless I did this blog today so youuuuuuu. This is a good entry point for some november calls. Just watch out for earnings on... lemme look it up...dudes i totally cannot find it right now.. but its sometime at the end of october... note: look up amazon earnings date.. but anyways 89 ish is where the trendline support is. And thats where the stock is right now. But the 50day is at 84 ish so theres still a little room to fall.
ARD: I put this in my watchlist cuz its on Forbes list of top 100 growth companies. Its at number 3 or something. Anways there is supposed to be a stock split effective for stock holders as of Oct 15. Which is coming up. I wasnt sure if there would be a run up into the split. I was thinking of getting into some options around 65 on the pullback but there isnt much open interest on this stock so I didn't want to risk getting owned by the spread.
ARNA: Biotech stock is around a 5 year support which is pretty exciting. There seems to be only good news coming from this stock about trials and such. If I were into stock buying I would get into this right now with very little fear. Maybe but a stop at 9.50 so theres a downside of a dollar. But with options you gotta be sure of price movement. So maybe some december calls in the near future.
ATVI: Man i love this stock. I called this stock when it couldnt get past 19.50 and i told my mom to buy it at 18.60 or something. Now its at 22.50 just a month later after todays tech slaughter. I think its a good entry point for it. Back in september at 18 i was sure it would go to 25 by december.. Now it feels like 25 is a pretty low target. I was bullish on this stock because of guitar hero 3 release and a couple other games. Video games seems to be a really bullish sector this year.
BIDU: This guy got absolutely destroyed today. a 50 point drop after JPMorgan revised and lowered their estimates for the quarter. Ive been reading that it hit them particularly hard because jpmorgan orginally had the biggest price target. But for some reason I'm still bullish on their earnings because of a recent article about how worldwide search has increasing a lot and the fact that they blew out earnings in previous quarters. The one thing I can't predict is how the street will react if they don't flat out demolish estimates. Even with the recent pullback this one is a little too risky for me.
CELG: This is a stock that I didn't enter because I was pretty stupid. It was probably the safest stock to play in august but I didn't see it, because I was too busy following the big movers like aapl and rimm and goog. But anyhow I think that its seasonal ride is coming to a stop soon. It usually lasts for a bout 2 months.
CFC: Honestly I don't even know why this stock is still in my list. I was interested before during the summer credit crisis. It seems to have made a bottom around 18, but I just don't see anything propelling this in the near future. SOOOO the opportunity cost is just not worth it.
CHL: I was looking at this before the huge china run up. I just don't understand these chinese stocks because they keep moving and moving without any concrete reason. I'm afraid there will be a big china pullback just like there was a tech one today.
CROX: at 66 this stock is 5 above its moving average. This stock is magical looking at the 1 year. Its 50day is the ultimate support for this stock even during the aug 17 sell off. If in the next day or to it drops a buck or two I'll be very interested.
EMC: This was my best trade of all time (in my 2.5 month experience). I saw got in around 19.14 when it was trading between 18.50 and 19.99. It was forming a bullish wedge and BAM broke out into the twenties. I got out of my trade at 21.70 because I didn't want to be a pig. I've decided to play things pretty safe, because options can kill you. Especially ones that expire within the month.
GENZ: kinda like celgene nothing interesting right now so i'm going to skip it today because it is now 2 am... and the market opens at 6:30 am on the west coast ...my goodnesss...
GOOG: This stock is great. But it is super extended. The tech slaughter only pulled it back to oct 10 levels... thats only one day... I don't feel to great about that. Its 80 points about the 50 day or about 12.5 % ish? Thats a lot.. So another day another day.. I think tomorrow there could be more selling.
GRMN: I thought the market overreacted to the navteq deal and it did. But just as GRMN was coming back the tech smash happens.. so it might be a good play for november calls. Another note its sitting right above the 50 day and right below its trendline before getting owned by the navteq deal.
HOLX: I don't know much other than this is a women's health company. Cramer was super bullish on this. I didnt know how high it could go. And boy did it go high. =T
ISRG: This stock is totally near its trendline and Im pretty bullish for the quarter's earnings. SO.. this looks like another winner, with amazon.
LVS: maybe a double top today? i dont know but if it pulls back from this one itll be a good entry as the 50day catches up
MA:
RIMM: they just owned earnings and theres been a pullback with the tech smashhhhh. SO one more day of pullback for sure its a buy. yay for rimm..
BA: Boeing just came crashing down off of delays for 787s.. and it happened to make a double top. so maybe there will be a double bottom! who knows but for longs right now is a pretty safe entry.. with supports all the way until may. Plus the whole weak dollar deal and china needed tons and tons of airplanes to support its growing infrastructure... what uppppppp boeinggg!!
VMW: i never had the balls to get into this stock to be honest.. The p/e is way to high even though right now it frankly doesnt have any competition. But the whole low float thig is screwing my perception up because with 10% of the stock traded it has a market cap of 40 billion which some people think represents the market cap of the virtualization industry in 2010. And Microsoft recently introduced its virtualization software..
allright finally i am done. Usually ill do shorter comments on my watchlist stocks and more notes on other general events. GOODnighttt I gotta wake up in 4 hours. Conclusion for today is AMAZON and ISRG rock my stocks yea! yay! hooray! man im gone.
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