It's That Time Again--Housing Report

Yesterday, the NAR released housing data for the month of July. I would've had this up for you yesterday, but being that this site just relaunched today you'll have to forgive me. Next time you are free to comment-bash however!

Before I give you data, remember that monthly housing data needs to be compared year over year, and not month to month because of seasonal effects. So knowing that:

• Existing home sales for July 2008 was 5 million on a seasonally adjusted basis
  
• Existing home sales dropped 13.2 percent from July 2007
• Existing home sales rose 3.1 percent from June 2008
• Average home prices dropped 7.1% from July 2007. (Average sale in July-08 was $212,400. Average sale in July-07 was $228,600)

On a national level, the housing "meltdown" doesn't seem that bad. Whenever house prices decline it's bad news, especially considering how millions of people put very little down and are in negative equity positions. Still, 7% seems palatable.

But those "hot zones" of the housing boom are getting pummeled. Los Angeles, San Diego, Riverside.. basically all of Southern California plus Miami and more.

The median price in the West was $273,200, down 22.2 percent from a year ago.

It's going to be a while until this economy gets rid of all its excesses...

More juicy data:

• housing inventory at the end of July rose 3.9 percent to 4.67 million existing homes available for sale
• The rise in supply results from a sharp increase in condo inventory; the single family supply declined
• According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.43 percent in July from 6.32 percent in June; the rate was 6.70 percent in July 2007

So there is a bit of good news to be extracted. The supply situation for single family homes actually declined. But being that home prices have dropped, and more people will be in negative equity, it's likely that foreclosures are going to be running strong for a while.

The only way to get some equilibrium out of this whole mess is for buyers to buy thinking that house prices are way too low. But how is that going to happen when no one wants to lend? and after 4 percent of interest rate cuts over the past year, the 30-year mortgage rate has only decreased by 0.27 percent?

Not good news.